Term Structure Estimation, Liquidity-Induced Heteroskedasticity and the Price of Liquidity Risk

Abstract

Since the seminal paper of Vasicek and Fong (1982), the term structures of interest rates have been fitted assuming that yields are cross-sectionally homoskedastic. We show that this assumption does not hold when there are differences in liquidity, even for bonds of the same issuer. Lower turnover implies higher volatility. In addition, a minimum tick size for bond price negotiation will produce higher volatility for bonds approaching their maturity dates. To show these effects, we use data for Spanish sovereign bonds from 1988 to 2010, covering more than 700 bonds and 5000 trading days. We estimate the out-of-sample error for each bond and day. The variance of these errors is found to be negatively correlated with each bond’s turnover and duration, while the mean of the errors is found to be directly correlated with the estimated variance. As a result, we propose a modified Svensson (1994) yield curve model to fit the term structure, adding a liquidity term and estimating parameters by weighted least-squared errors to take into account the liquidity-induced heteroskedasticity.