Abstract
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.
Highlights
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future
The projected temperature shows a low variation after the 2060s under both pathways[33,34,35]
Existing studies identified a non-linear U, V- or J-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality, suggesting that the mortality will sharply increase once a certain threshold is exceeded[5,36,37,38,39,40]
Summary
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. We assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. Little is known about future impacts of heat waves in less developed countries, where capacity to address climate change is comparatively low and vulnerability to climaterelated damages is high. Only a few studies focused on heat-related health impacts in China[11,14,20,27,30,31], and they often ignored the changing population structure and adaptation capacity. The heat-related mortality in major cities of China is assessed by applying case analyses from 27 metropolises (Supplementary Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1) for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. In addition to the changes in the mortality-inducing high temperature, the differences of mortality between various climate and socioeconomic scenarios are assessed to deepen our understanding of the potential benefits of climate change mitigation that will limit global warming
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
