Abstract
Hongze Lake plays a key role in flood and waterlogging prevention, analyzing the variation process and characteristics of multi-time scales will have a great practical significance to water resources management and regulation in the Huaihe River basin of China. This research proposed a combinatorial mutation test method to study the interannual variation trends and change points of runoff and sediment flowing into and out of Hongze Lake during the period 1975–2015. It is concluded that the annual variation trend of the inflow and outflow runoff time series is consistent, with no obvious decreasing trend and change point, while the inflow and outflow sediment time series showed a decreasing trend, and the change point was 1991. Then, the runoff and sediment time series were analyzed by the wavelet method. The results showed that the time series has multi-time scale characteristics. The annual inflow runoff and sediment would enter into the dry period in a short time after 2015, and both would be in the valley floor stage. Among the influencing factors, the variation of rainfall in the basin was the main factor affecting the runoff variation. Changes in heavy rainfalls pattern, the construction of hydraulic engineering projects, and land use/cover change (LUCC) are the main reasons for the significant decrease and mutation variation of inflow sediment.
Highlights
Runoff plays a vital role in the hydrologic cycle
This paper based on the M–K test and Pettitt test, a combinatorial mutation test method with high precision was proposed to analyze the trend of runoff and sediment time series of Hongze Lake from 1975 to 2015
The results show that the runoff flowing into and out of Honze Lake were within the confidence interval of significance level a = 0.05, but didn’t exceed the significance level, and there were no obvious trend variation and change points
Summary
Runoff plays a vital role in the hydrologic cycle. It is of great significance to explore the changing trend of water flow in the field of water resources [1]. Hydrologic events such as variations in runoff and sediment are partly results of variations in the hydrologic cycle [2], these variations can be divided into two categories: trend and shift [3]. Most studies on the hydrological cycle variations of the Huaihe River basin focused on the mainstream and branches water system, Zhou et al [5] studied the dynamic characteristics of flood time series in the Huaihe River basin based on chaos theory. Ye et al [8] and Yu et al [9] explained the spatial characteristics and variation trends of precipitation in the Huaihe River basin
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