Abstract
Due to the presence fiscal evasion and the lack of publicly available financial statements, one of the least studied characteristics of the Albanian entrepreneurship activities during the last 25 years has been the bankruptcy potential. Considered as the leading business sector of the local economy, this research studies the financial distress characteristics of the energy, telecommunication, and construction sector in the Albanian economy. Due to the lack of financial market data, and bureaucratic loopholes in the Albanian legal framework, the methodology employed is in line with Altman (2000) for predicting financial distress. The probability of default of the Albanian corporations, considered in this paper, is assessed based on the Z′ and Z″ methodology, according to which the driving factors to financial distress are liquidity, profitability, productivity, leverage, and the sales generating the ability of the assets of companies considered in this research. The insolvency tendencies and characteristics of the three industries are analyzed in this research. The source of data is the National Registration Center (NRC) of Albanian businesses, for Albanian VIP companies, as classified from the Albanian Tax Authority. None of the sectors in the study can be classified as default, based on the samples analyzed and the models employed. Telecommunication shows the lowest exposure to default in the most recent year. The liquidity and leverage of the sector decreases the probability of default. All ratios show a gradual decrease of the financial health for energy, while the construction sector ratios seem more volatile from year to year. The difficulty in identifying bankruptcy cases is one of the limitations of this study. A natural extension of this study might be the quantitative bankruptcy modeling of Albanian companies. Factor loadings of the explanatory variables may change from the original models of Altman Z′ and Z″.
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