Abstract
Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades. COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns have altered global energy demands. Using government confinement policies and activity data, daily CO2 emissions have decreased by ~17% to early April 2020 against 2019 levels; annual emissions could be down by 7% (4%) if normality returns by year end (mid-June).
Highlights
Before the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, emissions of carbon dioxide were rising by about 1% per year over the previous decade[1,2,3], with no growth in 20193,4
Scale 0 indicates no measures were in place, scale 1 indicates policies targeted at small groups of individuals suspected of carrying infection, scale 2 indicates policies targeted at entire cities or regions or that affect about 50% of society and scale 3 indicates national policies that substantially restrict the daily routine of all but key workers (Supplementary Extended Methods)
In spite of the broader effects on the economy that are not included in our analysis, our 2020 estimates are similar to those that can be inferred based on the projections of the International Monetary Fund for 2020 of –3% reduction in global Gross Domestic Product[29] combined with an average CO2/GDP improvement of –2.7% over the past decade[2,30], which gives a –5.7% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020. These independent global and US projections are similar to the middle sensitivity test 2 of confinement that we present in this publication, while the projection of the International Energy Agency (IEA) of –8% decrease in CO2 emissions in 2020 aligns with our high-end test 331
Summary
Before the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, emissions of carbon dioxide were rising by about 1% per year over the previous decade[1,2,3], with no growth in 20193,4 (see Methods). Some proxy data are available in near-real time or at monthly intervals. Given the lack of real-time CO2 emissions data, we devise an alternative approach to estimate country-level emissions based on a confinement index (CI) conceived to capture the extent to which different policies affect emissions, and available daily data of activity for six economic sectors (Table 1 and Fig. 2). The changes in emissions are entirely due to a forced reduction in energy demand In this case the demand disruption was neither intentional nor welcome, the effect provides a quantitative indication of the potential limits that extreme measures could deliver with the current energy mix (for example, a higher rate of home working or reducing consumption). The 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis saw global CO2 emissions decline of –1.4% in 2009, immediately
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
