Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis

Abstract

This research evaluated variations in Brent oil prices and the interrelation with maritime traffic density in the Turkish Straits during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of commercial ships that made non-stop over passage through the Turkish Straits in the last 5 years, covering the COVID-19 -and post-pandemic periods with economic instabilities was investigated along with variables of vessel characteristics such as; gross tonnage, size and type of vessel loads. Results of the present study reveal that the maritime traffic density between 2019 and 2023, was influenced by the pandemic crisis, when harsh quarantine measures of lockdown and curfews in the first shock wave. In the aftermath, conflicts between Ukraine and Russia led to economic recession or upheaval with instabilities in Brent oil prices. For the period examined in this study, the number of non-stop over passage vessels and gross tonnages used the Turkish Straits were affected by the pandemic outbreak and Brent oil price variations. The number of vessels decreased by 5.22% from 84,871 to 80,440 during the epidemic in 2020, and by 5.38% from 43.342 to 42.340 during the global recession in 2022. Overall, the number of non-stop over passage vessels using the Turkish Straits between 2019 and 2023 declined by 1.15%, while the gross tonnage and ship length increased by 3.44% and 13.24%, respectively. In total, the number of non-specific tankers (TTA) and those carrying chemicals (TCH) increased by 2.92% and 10.97%, respectively, but a 13.25% decrease was noted for the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers over the 5 years. Considering that the world trade network is largely dependent on maritime transportation, identifying the changes in maritime transportation with the interrelation of Brent oil during global crises may provide important data for strategy building of best trade management with foresights to world economic crises.