Abstract
Observations of shear-wave splitting at seismic stations above a swarm of small earthquakes on Hainan Island, China, and other examples world-wide, suggest that the time-delays of split shear-waves monitor the build up of stress before earthquakes and the stress release as earthquakes occur. Rock physics experiments on marble specimens also show variations of shear-wave time-delays with uniaxial pressure analogous to the field observations. The rock experiments show an abrupt decrease in time-delays immediately before fracturing occurs. Similar precursory behaviour has been observed before earthquakes elsewhere, and is believed to be important for two reasons. Precursory changes in shear-wave splitting could be used for short-term forecasting, but of greater importance may be the information such behaviour provides about the source processes in earthquake preparation zones.
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