Abstract
Persistence in surface air temperature anomaly (SATA) time series over 1901–2010 observed at four cities: Nagpur, Pune, Mumbai and Delhi of India is examined using rescaled-range and predictability index. A gap of 40 years is observed in predictability maxima, which is linked with the short-range correlations. Seasonal analysis showed unpredictability of SATA during four seasons at Nagpur, during summers at Pune and Mumbai, and during monsoon and post-monsoon at Mumbai and Delhi. Significant change is observed after 1991 at Delhi, Nagpur and Mumbai with a respective increase of 1.7, 2.2 and 3.3 °C in surface air temperature (SAT) during 1901–2010. The spatial and temporal variations in the SAT in four cities are attributed to their geographic and climatic conditions. The results suggest the utility of the rescaled-range analysis and predictability index in exploring the changes in the climatic variables.
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