Temporal Variations and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Use Intensity in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015

Abstract

Based on the cost-income data of agricultural products and relevant statistical data, taking major grain crops and economic crops in the process of cultivated land use as study cases, we studied characteristics of the temporal variation of cultivated land use intensity and its composition in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2015, and then analyzed its main driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The total intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a rising trend from 919.73 Yuan ha–1 in 1980 to 3285.06 Yuan ha–1 in 2015, and the average annual intensity of economic crops was higher than that of grain crops. The labor cost and material cost of major crops both showed an increasing trend, but the material input was much higher than labor input for grain crops, while the labor input was much higher than material input for economic crops. (2) The labor intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend from 501.75 man-day ha–1 in 1980 to 161.93 man-day ha–1 in 2015. The labor intensity of grain crops was lower than that of economic crops and its decline rate was fast. On the contrary, the capital intensity showed an increasing trend from 518.33 Yuan ha–1 in 1980 to 1159.95 Yuan ha–1 in 2015. In the internal composition of capital intensity, the proportion of yield-increasing inputs such as seed, farmyard manure, fertilizer, pesticide and drainage and irrigation decreased gradually, while the proportion of labor-saving inputs such as agricultural machinery increased significantly. (3) The cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Province had significant negative correlations with the amount of agricultural labor and cultivated land area per capita. The primary direct driving factor was the net income per unit cost of major crops, but the time response lagged by 1–3 years. The main indirect driving factor was the reform of agricultural policy.