Abstract
Purpose Skin malignant melanoma (SMM) is one of the fastest-growing cancers in China, with a poor prognosis, high invasiveness, and high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of SMM in China between 1990 and 2019. Patients and Methods. Incidence and mortality data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and were analyzed using an age-period-cohort framework. Results The annual incidence net drifts were 3.523% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.318% to 3.728%) and 3.779% (95% CI: 3.585% to 3.974%) for males and females, respectively, while the corresponding annual net drifts of mortality were −0.754% (95% CI: −1.073% to −0.435%) and –0.826% (95% CI: −1.164% to −0.487%). The local drift from 1990 to 2019 was highest in males aged from 25 to 29 years. After controlling for period deviations in a single birth cohort, the SMM incidence and mortality increased exponentially with age for both sexes. Similar increasing monotonic trends were found for period and cohort effects on the incidence, while a declining trend was found for mortality. Conclusion While the age-standardized mortality rate of SMM in China has decreased in both sexes over the past 30 years, the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate, and crude mortality rate have all increased. SMM may greatly threaten the health of the elderly in China due to the aging population. Appropriate changes should be made to raise the awareness, reduce the exposure to risk factors, and promote the early detection of SMM.
Highlights
Skin malignant melanoma (SMM) is the most aggressive and prevalent form of skin cancer that is characterized by a poor prognosis, frequent metastasis, and high mortality rate [1, 2]
Journal of Oncology necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of these limitations. is study aimed to use the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 to determine the long-term trend in SMM incidence and mortality rates in China and use an age-period-cohort (APC) framework to analyze the corresponding effects on incidence and mortality rate between sexes. e present findings can provide guidance for etiology research of SMM morbidity and mortality, health resource allocation, and policy formulation to improve the prevention and treatment for high-risk groups
Is study found a difference between the SMM crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), with the aging society considered to play an important role in this difference
Summary
Skin malignant melanoma (SMM) is the most aggressive and prevalent form of skin cancer that is characterized by a poor prognosis, frequent metastasis, and high mortality rate [1, 2]. The incidence and mortality of SMM in China are lower than the global average, they have recently increased rapidly to become one of the fastest-growing cancers in China [7]. A few studies have compared the incidence and mortality between age groups, but these studies have not considered the impact of period and cohort effects. It is, Journal of Oncology necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of these limitations. Is study aimed to use the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 to determine the long-term trend in SMM incidence and mortality rates in China and use an age-period-cohort (APC) framework to analyze the corresponding effects on incidence and mortality rate between sexes. Journal of Oncology necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of these limitations. is study aimed to use the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 to determine the long-term trend in SMM incidence and mortality rates in China and use an age-period-cohort (APC) framework to analyze the corresponding effects on incidence and mortality rate between sexes. e present findings can provide guidance for etiology research of SMM morbidity and mortality, health resource allocation, and policy formulation to improve the prevention and treatment for high-risk groups
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