Temporal trends in the frequency and longer‐term outcome of heart failure complicating myocardial infarction

Abstract

To investigate trends in incidence and long-term outcome of heart failure (HF) developing within 28 days of first-ever acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified all residents of Perth, Western Australia aged 25-64 years, with no history of HF, who experienced a non-fatal, first-ever AMI between 1984 and 1993, and followed them for ten years. All patients (N=4006) met the criteria for 'definite AMI' in WHO MONItoring trends and determinants of CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) Project and 897 (22.4%) had early-onset HF complicating the index event. After adjustment for age, current smoking, history of diabetes and hypertension, Q-wave and anterior wall AMI, the odds of developing HF declined by 9% (odds ratio for period 1989-1993 relative to 1984-1988=0.91, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.78 to 1.06). Over 10 years of follow-up, patients with early-onset HF had a cumulative average number of re-admissions of 28 per 100 as compared with 9 per 100 in patients without HF. After adjustment for age, history of diabetes and hypertension, the hazard of death in patients with early-onset HF declined by 26% (HR for the period 1989-1993 relative to 1984-1988=0.74, 95%CI: 0.57 to 0.96). Our data suggest a decline in the incidence of, and show encouraging evidence of improvement in survival after, early-onset HF complicating AMI.