Temporal trends in diabetes prevalence and key diabetes risk factors in Scotland, 2003–2008

Abstract

We assessed temporal trends in diabetes prevalence and key diabetes risk factors (obesity, physical activity, smoking) over 5 years in a nationally representative sample. Participants were drawn from the Scottish Health Surveys, which recruited two separate, nationally representative samples in 2003 (n = 7229, aged 50.5 ± 17.2 years) and 2008 (n = 6313, aged 51.8 ± 17.6 years). Prevalent diabetes was assessed from a self-reported physician's diagnosis, and high diabetes risk or undiagnosed cases were defined from HbA(1c) ≥ 6.0% (≥ 42 mmol/mol) to < 6.5% (< 47.5 mmol/mol) and ≥ 6.5% (≥ 47.5 mmol/mol), respectively. Over 5 years there was an increased prevalence of diabetes (5.2 vs. 9.4% in 2003 and 2008, respectively) and in the prevalence of high diabetes risk (2.9 vs. 12.4%). These differences were accentuated in participants aged 65 years and above; for diabetes, there was a prevalence of 12 and 17.3% in 2003 and 2008, respectively, and, for high risk, the prevalence was 7.8 and 24.7%, respectively. There was also an increase in diabetes risk factors, including obesity and lack of physical activity, although these factors did not explain the diabetes trend. These results suggest nearly a doubling in the prevalence of diabetes over 5 years in Scotland.