Temporal trends and spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of schistosomiasis mansoni in northeast Brazil between 2005 and 2016.

Abstract

Schistosoma mansoni is a parasitic disease of great magnitude for Brazilian public health. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend and spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of positivity rates for schistosomiasis mansoni in northeast Brazil. This is a descriptive study with an ecological approach, carried out between 2005 and 2016. We calculated the positivity rate for the disease and then performed a segmented trend analysis (Joinpoint). For spatial analysis, we smoothed the positivity rates using the local empirical Bayesian method. We checked for spatial autocorrelation using Moran's global and local. Subsequently, we performed Kulldorff's space time sweep analysis. In the period under review, 7 745 650 tests were performed in the northeast, of which 577 793 were positive for Schistosoma mansoni. In the historical series of positivities, it is noted that the highest rates were in Sergipe, Alagoas and Pernambuco. The states of Alagoas and Sergipe showed higher positivity in relation to the average positivity of the northeast and of Brazil. The spatial analysis maps identify clusters of high risk of schistosomiasis cases, mainly in coastal municipalities. There was also stability in positivity rates in some states and the maintenance of endemic areas. Thus effective public health policies are needed in health education in order to reduce schistosomiasis positivity and improve the health conditions of the northeastern population.