Temporal trends and predictors of inhospital death in patients hospitalised for heart failure in Germany.

Abstract

We investigated trends in incidence, case fatality rate, patient characteristics and adverse inhospital events of patients hospitalised for heart failure in Germany. The German nationwide inpatient sample (2005-2016) was used for this analysis. Patients hospitalised due to heart failure were selected for analysis. Temporal trends in the incidence of hospitalisations, case fatality rate and treatments were analysed and predictors of inhospital death were identified. The analysis comprised a total number of 4,539,140 hospitalisations (52.0% women, 81.0% aged ≥70 years) due to heart failure. Although hospitalisations increased from 381 (2005) to 539 per 100,000 population (2016) (β estimate 0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06 to 0.07, P < 0.001) in parallel with median age and prevalence of comorbidities, the inhospital case fatality rate decreased from 11.1% to 8.1% (β estimate -0.36, 95% CI -0.37 to -0.35, P < 0.001) and the rate of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (β estimate -0.24, 95% CI -0.25 to -0.23, P < 0.001) decreased from 12.7% to 10.3%. Age 70 years and older (odds ratio (OR) 2.60, 95% CI 2.57 to 2.63, P < 0.001) and cancer (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.91 to 1.96, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of inhospital death. Hospitalisations for heart failure increased in Germany from 2005 to 2016, whereas the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular event rate and inhospital case fatality rate decreased during this period despite higher patient age and increasing prevalence of comorbidities.