Abstract
Abstract Extreme hydrological events have gained notoriety in recent decades, thus recommended elements of decision-making assistance are important. In this context, this study focused on analyzing the temporal behavior of the maximum rainfall and waterflow recorded in the city of Rio Branco, Acre (Brazil), in addition to analyzing their frequencies, highlighting the reference quantiles and their reported probabilities of recurrence. The results pointed to a linearly upward trend, both for flow and rainfall, but these differences were not statistically significant according to the Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests (α = 5%), leading to the conclusion for the occurrence of changes in hydrological patterns in Rio Branco, although statistically non-significant. However, it is warned to the precocity of attributing the main cause of such changes to either anthropic or natural actions. Regarding frequency analysis, it was found that Gumbel distribution is proper to the adjustment of the studied data, thus, it is possible to determine the lifetime associated with hydrological risk and the useful lifespan of a project aiming at planning actions in the face of the impacts of extreme events, especially in a scenario of severe floods.
Highlights
In recent decades, the number of natural disasters has increased sharply, especially those whose causes are credited to changes in hydrological processes
For Nunes et al (2018), extreme hydrological events are among the main manifestations of climate change, highlighting that the minimization of the resulting impacts lacks the study of the magnitude and frequency of their occurrences, especially in the regional context
Santos et al (2013) point to the possibility of fluctuations in the climatic conditions in the Brazilian Amazon, caused by other phenomena, such as ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation). In view of these considerations, the present study focuses on analyzing the temporal behavior of rainfall and waterflow records observed in the city of Rio Branco, Acre, highlighting the existence of possible trends, besides performing a frequency analysis for the hydrological variables in question, emphasizing the reference quantiles and their reported probabilities of recurrence
Summary
The number of natural disasters has increased sharply, especially those whose causes are credited to changes in hydrological processes. Souza et al (2016) note that avoiding the occurrence of such natural disasters eludes human capacity, but measures can be rationally developed, which can minimize their impacts. For Tundisi and Tundisi (2015), there are many factors that can temporally change the hydrological cycle, whether related to changes resulting from the natural climate process or associated with various human activities. Even though there are still divergences regarding the causes, many studies conclude that much of the problems related to extreme hydrological events may be associated with anthropic activities. For Nunes et al (2018), extreme hydrological events are among the main manifestations of climate change, highlighting that the minimization of the resulting impacts lacks the study of the magnitude and frequency of their occurrences, especially in the regional context
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