Temporal Study of Trend Analysis of Tourism Flow in Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh from 2008-2022 and its Seasonality for Tourism Forecasting

Abstract

Accelerating growth of the tourism industry in the Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh over the past decade, contributing substantially to the district economy, and creating employment opportunities for locals, attracts the attention of researchers to a greater extent. This research paper presents insights into tourism dynamism in the study area, spanning the period from 2008 to 2022. It mainly uses secondary data collected from various government departments, tourist records, and surveys to analyze the trend and seasonality of tourism and further explore their implications for tourism forecasting. The findings of the study reveal considerable fluctuations in tourist influx over an analyzed period which could be attributed to various economic, social, and climatic factors. Further research explores seasonality, including peak and off-peak seasons, and the factors responsible for them. Cartographical methods and statistical methods such as (simple average method, annual growth rate, and coefficient of determination) are used to quantify seasonality, propose a tourism forecasting model on the basis of the former, and further check the accuracy of the model. The results of the study help in understanding the tourism dynamism in Kullu district in a better way and provide valuable insights for the policymakers, tourism authorities, and local residents for developing various strategies to optimize tourism opportunities, manage the quality of tourism services, and ensure the development of the study area.