Abstract
China has undergone rapid industrialization and urbanization over the past 40 years. In this process, as a large country with a vast territory and a large population, China’s population development and land utilization have been greatly affected and undergone dramatic changes. In this paper, we mainly discuss the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of land-use efficiency in China from 1991 to 2016 and the regional disparities and explore the impacts of demographic transition on land-use efficiency by employing a STIRPAT model. In terms of space, China’s land-use efficiency has significant agglomeration distribution characteristics and regional inequality, and the degrees of agglomeration and differentiation have gradually become enhanced over time. Our study on the influences of demographic transition on land-use efficiency found a Kuznets curve relationship between the transition of population size and land-use efficiency, as well as between the income level transition and land-use efficiency. Especially, land-use efficiency first increases up to the population threshold of 10,611.877 × 104, then efficiency decreases as the population grows. The overall average population in the whole country is 4117.753 × 104, which is smaller than the identified threshold. Interestingly, the factors influencing land-use efficiency also showed very significant regional disparities. In the eastern region, there is a U-curve relationship between the population employed in secondary industries (ES2) and land-use efficiency. Land-use efficiency decreases down to the ES2 threshold of 343.674 × 104 for the eastern region, whereas the overall average ES2 is 874.976 × 104, indicating that this region has reached the turning point where land-use efficiency will improve as the population employed in secondary industries increases. Meanwhile, the increase in the human capital level was significantly positively correlated with land-use efficiency in the eastern region. For the central region, the transition of the urban–rural population structure (measured by the urbanization rate) significantly increased land-use efficiency. In addition, the results of panel estimation showed a Kuznets relationship between the population employed in tertiary industries (ES3) and land-use efficiency in the western region. Land-use efficiency increases up to the ES3 threshold of 455.545 × 104, and then decreases with an increasing population employed in tertiary industries, whereas the overall average ES3 in the western region is 415.97 × 104, which is smaller than the identified threshold. Policymakers could use these findings to inform rational suggestions with a sound scientific basis regarding the promotion of land-use transition.
Highlights
Demographic transition has been shown to be one of the most stable and principal factors influencing and predicting economic growth and social development [1,2,3,4]
These provinces greatly promote the improvement of land utilization efficiency in their own and their surrounding provinces, forming a number of provincial clusters with higher land-use efficiency, which gradually spread over time
According to the exploration of the spatial distribution pattern of land-use efficiency in China from 1991 to 2016, we found land-use efficiency has a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating that there exists a spatial agglomeration effect, and most of the cluster centers are areas with a dense population and developed economy
Summary
Demographic transition has been shown to be one of the most stable and principal factors influencing and predicting economic growth and social development [1,2,3,4]. As the world’s most populous country, the impact of demographic transition on China cannot be ignored It will profoundly change China’s economic and social structure and have a great influence on the sustainability of its development. In China, rapid urbanization and industrialization occurred simultaneously with demographic transition, and are at a stage of rapid development. With these processes, land-use efficiency is inevitably greatly affected. Many studies mention the effect of population quantity on land-use efficiency, and suggest that the former has a significant influence on the latter [8,9,10,11,12]. This means that population is one of the main factors of land-use efficiency
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
