Temporal scaling of volcanic eruptions

Abstract

Volcanoes are a manifestation of the planet's past and present internal dynamics and are also a major natural hazard. Statistical analysis of volcanic eruptions is important in evaluating the risk they pose. Several stochastic models were suggested to describe the temporal sequences of eruptions. However, comprehensive understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for eruptions remains elusive. In this work, we propose a scaling law to quantify the distribution of interevent times between eruptions for volcanoes that have the largest eruptive history as well as groups of volcanoes on Earth. We found that probability density functions have a similar functional form when they are rescaled with the corresponding sample averages. The obtained scaling law for interevent times can be modeled using the log-normal distribution and signifies that the dynamics of volcanic eruptions on Earth is similar and quite independent of the type of volcanism and the geographical location of volcanoes. The phenomenon of triggering volcanic eruptions operates in a similar way for all volcano types, which emphasizes the importance of studying volcanism as a universal process.