Abstract
This study analyzed the relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases. Ecological study performed with autochthonous dengue cases reported during 2003 to 2010 in São Luís, Maranhão. Data of rainfall and temperature were collected monthly. The monthly incidence of dengue cases was calculated by year/100,000 inhabitants. In order to identify the influence of climate variables and dengue cases different distributed lag models using negative binomial distribution were considered. Model selection was based on the lowest AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Thirteen thousand, four hundred forty-four cases of dengue between 2003 and 2010 were reported, with peaks in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed increase in the first months after the rainy months. Occurrence of dengue cases was observed during all the period of study. Only rainfall-lag per three months showed a positive association with the number of cases dengue. Thus, this municipality is considered as an endemic and epidemic site. In addition, the relation between rainfall and dengue cases was significant with a lag of three months. These results should be useful to the future development of politics healthy for dengue prevention and control.
Highlights
The climate and its variables such as rainfall and temperature have a great influence on society, especially concerning the main basic survival needs for mankind as air, water, food and shelter
Four hundred forty-four cases of dengue were registered in São Luís from 2003 to 2010 with peaks in 2005 (309.07/100,000 inhabitants), 2007 (358.43/100,000 inhabitants) and 2010 (276.39/100,000 inhabitants.)
The highest incidences of dengue cases were observed in the months of May, June, July, August and September during the study period (Table 1)
Summary
The climate and its variables such as rainfall and temperature have a great influence on society, especially concerning the main basic survival needs for mankind as air, water, food and shelter Taking this on consideration, the human beings have been influencing inadvertently the local urban landscape through their activities, and in turn producing a chaotic urban space. Climate changes may impact on human health by increasing incidence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases such as dengue These infections are more often observed in tropical countries and considered one of the major public health problems due to global warming[2]. According to the way the disease manifests it may be sorted as dengue without warning signs, dengue with warning signs and severe It is considered as the most important arboviral disease that affects human beings and a serious public health problem worldwide. Dengue is seen especially in tropical countries, where environmental conditions favor the development and proliferation of Aedes aegypti, the main vector[3]
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