Temporal Instability Analysis of Injury Severities for Angle and Non-Angle Crashes at Roundabouts

Abstract

Roundabout crashes are common worldwide but have received little attention. In particular, the investigation remains relatively understudied in distinct collision modes of roundabout crashes, including angle and non-angle crashes. This study investigates differences in factors affecting injury severity between angle and non-angle crashes and how these differences change over time. Random parameter logit models with heterogeneity in mean and variance were estimated using 2012–2019 Florida crash data. Variables considered for the modeling include temporal characteristics, environmental characteristics, road characteristics, spatial characteristics, vehicle characteristics, crash characteristics, and human characteristics. In addition, likelihood ratio tests were used to investigate the temporal instabilities of the models and differences in collision modes. The results showed that only a few variables demonstrated temporally stable effects for angle collisions (weekend and dark-lighted) and non-angle collisions (paved shoulders and cyclists), respectively. Unique influencing factors of injury severity were identified for different collision modes, such as dark-lighted, straight alignment, merge, lane departure, the disabled driver for angle collisions, and clear, fog, commercial vehicles, and aggressive driving for non-angle collisions. The results of the out-of-sample prediction simulations further demonstrate the difference in injury severity over time for angle and non-angle collisions. Overall results suggest that countermeasures can be implemented to reduce the injury severity of angle crashes/non-angle crashes based on the significant variables identified. This study may be used to improve roundabout safety by considering different collision modes.