Abstract

Disparities and their geospatial patterns exist in morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 patients. When it comes to the infection rate, there is a dearth of research with respect to the disparity structure, its geospatial characteristics, and the pre-infection determinants of risk (PIDRs). This work aimed to assess the temporal–geospatial associations between PIDRs and COVID-19 infection at the county level in South Carolina. We used the spatial error model (SEM), spatial lag model (SLM), and conditional autoregressive model (CAR) as global models and the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) as a local model. The data were retrieved from multiple sources including USAFacts, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Population Estimates Program. The percentage of males and the unemployed population were positively associated with geodistributions of COVID-19 infection (p values < 0.05) in global models throughout the time. The percentage of the white population and the obesity rate showed divergent spatial correlations at different times of the pandemic. GWR models fit better than global models, suggesting nonstationary correlations between a region and its neighbors. Characterized by temporal–geospatial patterns, disparities in COVID-19 infection rate and their PIDRs are different from the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 patients. Our findings suggest the importance of prioritizing different populations and developing tailored interventions at different times of the pandemic.

Highlights

  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease that has caused widespread panic and concern across the globe

  • Our study found that the geospatial distribution of COVID-19 incidence was constantly influenced by several key pre-infection determinants of risk (PIDRs) including male percentage and unemployment

  • PIRDs such as white percentage and obesity rate were negatively correlated with COVID-19 incidence at the beginning of the pandemic and became positively correlated with

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Summary

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease that has caused widespread panic and concern across the globe. COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in 2020. 2020, there have been 41 million confirmed cases and 660 thousand deaths due to COVID19 in the USA [1,2,3]. COVID-19 has had a profound impact on social life and the economy, as closing businesses and social distancing have been common practices to slow the spread of the disease. The U.S real GDP decreased by 3.5% in 2020 and was projected to lose at least $3.2 trillion due to COVID-19 in a two-year course [4,5]

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