Abstract

Improvements of manufacturability and living standard driven by industrialization and urbanization typically cause a spike in total energy consumption (TEC) and related carbon emissions (TCEM). However, there have been few comparative studies to include industrial and residential energy consumption (IEC and REC, respectively) and related carbon emissions (ICEM and RCEM, respectively). Since China is a major emerging industrial country wherein urbanization is still ongoing, the present study was conducted in an attempt to analyze the temporal evolution of China’s continued energy consumption and related carbon emissions regarding both industrialization and urbanization. The influencing factors of TCEM, RCEM and ICEM are determined via the log-mean divisia index (LMDI) model. The results showed that both TEC and TCEM gradually increased (apart from a slight decrease in 2014); REC and RCEM increased steadily with no sharp peak; while IEC and ICEM declined sharply. TCEM was positively affected by economic output, consumption level, and population size; the influence of consumption level became more and more significant. Per capita GDP and per capita expenditure were the most significant driving factors for RCEM, while industrial added value (IAV) was the main driving factor for ICEM. The temporal evolution and influencing factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions had stage-related characteristics in accordance with Shanghai’s three stages of development. The Shanghai case study provided a comprehensive understanding of energy consumption and related carbon emissions from the dual perspective of industrialization and urbanization.

Highlights

  • The rapidly growing impact of human activities on the Earth’s many ecosystems is an undeniable force; major natural processes from the local to the global level are increasingly influenced by human forces [1,2]

  • We aimed to answer the following questions: (1) How did energy consumption and carbon emissions change in terms of total energy consumption (TEC)/TCEM, residential energy consumption (REC)/RCEM, and Industrial energy consumption (IEC)/ICEM? To be specific, did REC and RCEM increase rapidly in the past 20 years? (2) What were the primary factors influencing the changes in energy-related carbon emissions? Was there any difference among them in regard to the total, industrial, and residential carbon emissions? (3) Did energy consumption and carbon emissions show any stage-related characteristics? If so, what were they exactly?

  • The proportions of IEC and ICEM continuously declined throughout the study period, but their quantities only began to decrease in the third stage when the proportion of industrial added value (IAV) to GDP fell below 40%, which indicated that energy consumption and carbon emissions would continually increase until a region enters a high-income stage

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Summary

Introduction

The rapidly growing impact of human activities on the Earth’s many ecosystems is an undeniable force; major natural processes from the local to the global level are increasingly influenced by human forces [1,2]. Energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by rapid economic development are important consequences of human activities, which drive global climate change [3,4]. As one of the most rapid developing countries in the world, China is the world’s largest primary energy consumer and carbon emitter. In order to provide targeted measures to reduce total energy consumption (TEC) and carbon emissions (TCEM) without strangling economic development, it is necessary to empirically determine the composition and corresponding influencing factors of energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions

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