Temporal Aspects of Chlorophyll-a Presence Prediction Around Galapagos Islands

Abstract

Chlorophyll-a is a specific form of chlorophyll used in oxygenic photosynthesis which has been linked to nutrient presence in sea waters, and being able to correctly determine its concentrations may turn out to be a key step in helping preventing and controlling illegal fishing activities in certain areas. In this work, we consider open access data taken from the Copernicus space program (currently used in the European Union for Earth observation and monitoring) that include several physical and biochemical variables and measurements of the ocean surrounding Galapagos Islands (Ecuador). We use such data in an attempt to build a reliable spatial temporal model that can be used to forecasting the presence of Chlorophyll-a, using a novel technique called spatial-temporal regression. Our initial results, that show a probability of certainty in the forecast from 0.75% (5 days ahead prediction) to 82% (1 day ahead prediction), can be used to design a more complex, reliable, and implementable prediction model for real-time forecasting of Chlorophyll-a presence.KeywordsChlorophyll-a concentrationsTemporal regressionIllegal fishing prevention