Temporal and spatial variations in the Palmer Drought Severity Index over the past four centuries in arid, semiarid, and semihumid East Asia

Abstract

Based on a database of 106 annually resolved tree-ring chronologies and 244 Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) grid data, we attempted to reconstruct gridded spatial drought patterns in each year over the past four centuries in the arid, semiarid, and semihumid East Asia. The results showed that these regions mainly experienced drought events during the periods from AD 1601 to AD 1652, AD 1680 to AD 1718, AD 1779 to AD 1791, AD 1807 to AD 1824, AD 1846 to AD 1885, and AD 1961 to AD 1999. In the middle of the 16th century, severe droughts occurred mainly in North China; during the period from AD 1876 to AD 1878, droughts occurred in most parts of northern China; and from the 1920s to 1940s, catastrophic drought events spread across almost all of northern China and Mongolia. These historical drought events caused severe ecological and environmental problems and substantially affected the development of human society. In these regions, temperature and summer monsoon precipitation are the main factors influencing drought events. In western areas, PDSI and temperature exhibit a close relationship, whereas in eastern areas, summer monsoon rainfall is the dominant factor influencing variations in PDSI.