Abstract
This study calculated the provincial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China, analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in emissions, and determined the emission intensity from 2005 to 2015. The total emissions control was forecasted in 2015, and the reduction pressure of the 30 provinces in China was assessed based on historical emissions and the 12th five-year (2011–2015) reduction plan. Results indicate that CO2 emissions eventually increased and gradually decreased from east to west, whereas the emission intensity ultimately decreased and gradually increased from south to north. By the end of 2015, the total control of provincial emissions will increase significantly compared to the 2010 level, whereas the emission intensity will decrease. The provinces in the North, East, and South Coast regions will maintain the highest emission levels. The provinces in the Southwest and Northwest regions will experience a rapid growth rate of emissions. However, the national emission reduction target will nearly be achieved if all provinces can implement reduction targets as planned. Pressure indices show that the South Coast and Northwest regions are confronted with a greater reduction pressure of emission intensity. Finally, policy implications are provided for CO2 reductions in China.
Highlights
The international community has reached a consensus that global warming poses a serious threat.greenhouse gas reduction plans have been successively promulgated in the major developed and developing countries
Energy consumption remains the main source of CO2 emissions, accounting for more than 90% of
Differences exist between the calculation results of regional emissions from pure energy consumption and the computing framework that is proposed by this paper
Summary
The international community has reached a consensus that global warming poses a serious threat.greenhouse gas reduction plans have been successively promulgated in the major developed and developing countries. As the largest developing country, announced its program to reduce future carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during the 15th International Climate Conference held in Copenhagen in 2009. 12th five-year (2011–2015) plan to reduce emissions in 2012, which explicitly stipulated the reduction target for each provincial unit in mainland China. Both of these announcements emphasized the decrease of CO2 emission intensity. The first target, which was announced in Copenhagen, stated that the emission intensity in 2020 should be reduced by 40%–45% compared with the 2005 level. The second target, which was announced in Beijing, stated that the emission intensity in 2015 should be reduced by 17%
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