Abstract
Temporal patterns and spatial distribution of African swine fever (ASF) were studied through the analysis of routinely collected data in the ASF-endemic area of the Province of Nuoro, Sardinia. During 1993–1996, ASF outbreaks were reported from 45 out of the 82 municipalities of the study area. Overall farm-level incidence rate (IR) was 1.3 outbreaks per 100 farms-year. ASF peaked in 1995 (IR=1.8) and declined in 1996 (IR=0.82). Significant ( P<0.05) spring peaks of ASF outbreaks and affected municipalities were detected using statistical methods for circular distributions. Spatial clustering of ASF-affected municipalities, as evaluated by join-count statistics, was significant in 1993 ( Z jc=−3.0, P<0.01) and 1994 ( Z jc=−3.2, P<0.01) but not in 1995 ( Z jc=−0.6, P=0.55) and 1996 ( Z jc=−1.2, P=0.23). Extensive pig farming and ASF were spatially co-distributed ( κ=0.51, 95% CI=0.33–0.70).
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