Abstract
Studying the temporal and spatial evolution trends in earthquakes in an area is beneficial for determining the earthquake risk of the area so that local governments can make the correct decisions for disaster prevention and reduction. In this paper, we propose a new method for analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution trends in earthquakes based on earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or above from 1980 to 2019 in California and Nevada. The experiment’s results show that (1) the frequency of earthquake events of magnitude 4.5 or above present a relatively regular change trend of decreasing–rising in this area; (2) by using the weighted average center method to analyze the spatial concentration of earthquake events of magnitude 3.0 or above in this region, we find that the weighted average center of the earthquake events in this area shows a conch-type movement law, where it moves closer to the center from all sides; (3) the direction of the spatial distribution of earthquake events in this area shows a NW–SE pattern when the standard deviational ellipse (SDE) method is used, which is basically consistent with the direction of the San Andreas Fault Zone across the north and south of California; and (4) the spatial distribution pattern of the earthquake events in this region is found to be clustered using the global spatial autocorrelation analysis method. This study provides a new perspective for the exploration of the temporal and spatial evolution trends in earthquakes and understanding the earthquake risk in an area.
Highlights
Earthquakes are one of the main natural disasters on Earth [1,2]
It is difficult to predict the occurrence of earthquakes, recent studies have shown that we can analyze the trends in the change in earthquake risk in a certain region by studying the temporal and spatial evolution processes of earthquake events [6,7], which is beneficial to disaster prevention and reduction
We used statistical spatial analysis methods to study the temporal and spatial evolution trends in earthquake events of magnitude 3.0 or above in California and Nevada, and to explore the earthquake risk in this region based on the experimental results
Summary
Earthquakes are one of the main natural disasters on Earth [1,2]. The prediction of earthquakes is an important task worldwide [5]. Time, and magnitude of future large earthquakes can be accurately predicted, millions of lives may be saved. It is difficult to predict the occurrence of earthquakes, recent studies have shown that we can analyze the trends in the change in earthquake risk in a certain region by studying the temporal and spatial evolution processes of earthquake events [6,7], which is beneficial to disaster prevention and reduction. Due to the spatial constraints of different directions and distances between the spatial data, the traditional statistical analysis methods cannot be used to describe constraint relationships between these spatial data. The spatial statistics method has been widely applied in fields such as sociology, biology, demography, criminology and geology [11]
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