Abstract

AbstractThe Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is an important commercial grain production base in China. Understanding the temporal and spatial variations in precipitation can help prevent drought and flood disasters and ensure food security. Based on the precipitation data for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1960 to 2019, this study analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of total precipitation at different time scales using the Mann–Kendall test, the wavelet analysis, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and the centre-of-gravity model. The results were as follows: (1) The winter precipitation showed a significant upward trend on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, while other seasonal trends were not significant. (2) The precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shows a zonal decreasing distribution from southeast to northwest. (3) The application of the EOF method revealed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation field. The cumulative variance contribution rate of the first two eigenvectors reached 51.5%, revealing two typical distribution fields, namely a ‘global pattern’ and a ‘north-south pattern’. The ‘global pattern’ is the decisive mode, indicating that precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is affected by large-scale weather systems. (4) The annual precipitation barycentres on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain were located in Jining city and Taian city, Shandong Province, and the spatial distribution pattern was north-south. The annual precipitation barycentres tended to move southwest, but the trend was not obvious. The annual precipitation barycentre is expected to continue to shift to the north in 2020.

Highlights

  • In recent years, the global climate has been abnormal, and the surface temperature has continued to increase

  • (4) The annual precipitation barycentres on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain were located in Jining city and Taian city, Shandong Province, and the spatial distribution pattern was north-south

  • The results show that precipitation of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is primarily affected by largescale weather systems (Baldini et al )

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

The global climate has been abnormal, and the surface temperature has continued to increase. Li et al ( ) analysed the spatial and temporal distributions of drought characteristics on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). They found that the past 50 years have experienced reduced drought of shorter duration, and of weaker severity and intensity. Based on monthly precipitation data on the HuangHuai-Hai Plain over the past 60 years, this paper analysed the temporal and spatial characteristics of total precipitation in the study area and revealed the migration of the precipitation barycentre in the past 60 years using the M-K test, wavelet analysis, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and the centre-of-gravity model. The annual and fourseason precipitation on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the areal rainfall calculated by weighting the precipitation at 215 stations according to the Tyson polygon method

Methods
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
CONCLUSIONS
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