Abstract
BackgroundThe nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014, in order to predict plague outbreaks.MethodsGlobal spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils. Cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were also used to detect the intensity of clusters based on geographic information system methods. The quantity of M. unguiculatus nest fleas in the sentinel surveillance sites from 2005 to 2014 and host density data of the study area from 2005 to 2010 used in this study were provided by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.ResultsThe epidemic focus regions of the Mongolian gerbils remain the same as the hot spot regions relating to the body flea index. High clustering areas possess a similar pattern as the distribution pattern of the body flea index indicating that the transmission risk of plague is relatively high. In terms of time series, the area of the epidemic focus gradually increased from 2005 to 2007, declined rapidly in 2008 and 2009, and then decreased slowly and began trending towards stability from 2009 to 2014. For the spatial change, the epidemic focus regions began moving northward from the southwest epidemic focus of the Mongolian gerbils from 2005 to 2007, and then moved from north to south in 2007 and 2008.ConclusionsThe body flea index of Chinese gerbil foci reveals significant spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics through the employing of spatial autocorrelation. The diversity of temporary and spatial distribution is mainly affected by seasonal variation, the human activity and natural factors.
Highlights
The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, and to reveal its cluster rule
In order to better prevent and control the epidemic of plague, this study aims to strengthen the existing research on body fleas index in the natural focus of plague relating to typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils
2014 0.0044 −0.0345 0.0155 0.3120 0.7550 random results demonstrate that the body flea index in the epidemic foci of Mongolian gerbils agglomerated spatially with relatively higher levels in 2005 but lower levels in 2009; the body flea index was randomly spatial in other years
Summary
The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, and to reveal its cluster rule. Plague is an infectious disease transmitted by infected fleas that has caused large epidemics around the world and resulted in thousands of people dying. Plague has been reported in the epidemic foci of Mongolian gerbils in China over the last ten years. Plague broke out in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2011, and in 2014. Nine episodes of human plague were confirmed in 6 years from 1970 to 2004 (1970, 1972, 1986, 1987, 1991 and 2004) in the seven counties of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. These cases occurred within the plague foci of the Mongolian gerbil. Seven of the nine patients (77.78%) became infected via a flea bite in the wild
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