Abstract
We investigated how climate change affects the diameter growth of boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) at varying temporal and spatial scales. We generated data with a gap-type ecosystem model for selected locations and sites throughout Finland. In simulations, we used the current climate and recent-generation (CMIP5) global climate model projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) forcing scenarios for the period 2010–2099. Based on this data, we developed diameter growth response functions to identify the growth responses of forests under mild (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and severe (RCP8.5) climate change at varying temporal and spatial scales. Climate change may increase growth primarily in the north, with a clearly larger effect on birch and Scots pine than Norway spruce. In the south, the growth of Norway spruce may decrease largely under moderate and severe climate change, in contrast to that of birch. The growth of Scots pine may also decrease slightly under severe climate change. The degree of differences between tree species and regions may increase along with the severity of climate change. Appropriate site-specific use of tree species may sustain forest productivity under climate change. Growth response functions, like we developed, provide novel means to take account of climate change in empirical growth and yield models, which as such include no climate change for forest calculations.
Highlights
Boreal forests substantially affect the global carbon balance and climate
The climate change data of the CMIP5 database used in this study indicate greater increases in temperature, but only marginal changes in precipitation, compared with theCMIP3 database
Empirical growth and yield models assuming no climate change are widely used to support Empirical growth and yield models assuming no climate change are widely to support decision-making in forestry
Summary
Boreal forests substantially affect the global carbon balance and climate. In northern Europe, these forests are mainly characterized by coniferous species (e.g., Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.)H. Boreal forests substantially affect the global carbon balance and climate. In northern Europe, these forests are mainly characterized by coniferous species (e.g., Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.). Growth of the boreal forests is currently limited by the short growing season, low summer temperature, and short supply of nutrients such as nitrogen on upland (mineral) soils and potassium and phosphorus on drained nitrogen-rich peatland (organic) soils [1,2,3,4]. The changing climate may increase growth in these conditions [3,5,6,7] due to longer and warmer growing seasons, and increasing decay of soil organic matter and supply of nutrients for growth [2,8]. The increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration may enhance growth in Forests 2018, 9, 118; doi:10.3390/f9030118 www.mdpi.com/journal/forests
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