Temporal and spatial analysis for end-of-life power batteries from electric vehicles in China

Abstract

This study aims to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of end-of-life (EOL) power batteries from electric vehicles (EVs) in China. A Stanford estimation model is used, assuming that the lifetime of power batteries obeys a Weibull distribution. We collected the sales data for two types of power batteries used in four types of EVs from 2009 to 2018 in mainland China and predicted the sales data from 2019 to 2030 according to the Chinese government's plan. The results present a complete picture of EOL batteries in China: (1) the generation of retired power batteries in China is predicted from 2020 to 2036, including 112 k tonnes in 2020 and 708 k tonnes in 2030; (2) the potential economic value of retired batteries for echelon and recovery utilization is analyzed; and (3) the generation of retired power batteries in 20 provinces was estimated and compared with their collection station numbers. Considering the weight of different batteries and the service life increase caused by technology upgrades, our predictions for the quantity of retired batteries are lower and more accurate than others' predictions. Large-scale battery retirement will come later than previously anticipated. We should plan the number of recycling sites in main provinces based on the accurate retired amount.