Temporal analysis and spatial distribution of acquired syphilis in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2010-2021: an ecological study.

Abstract

To analyze the temporal trend and the spatial distribution of acquired syphilis in Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 2010 and 2021. This was an ecological study using notifications of acquired syphilis held on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System. Detection rates were calculated by health macro-region and three-year periods (2010-2012, 2013-2015, 2016-2018, 2019-2021). The jointpoint method was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC). Thematic maps of Bayesian rates were built and distribution was analyzed using Local Moran. The detection rate increased from 16.2 per 100,000 inhabitants in the first three-year period (2010-2012) to 70.0 in the last three-year period (2019-2021). The Central-North macro-region had the highest rate in the last three years (94.3/100,000 inhab.), while the highest upward trend occurred in the Central-Northwest macro-region, from 2013 to 2018 (APC = 50.2; 95%CI 26.3;78.6). There was an increase in Bayesian rates in most municipalities. There was a trend towards an increase in acquired syphilis, especially in the last two three-year periods.