Temperature-mortality relationship in hot, hyper-arid regions

Abstract

OPS 13: Heat, cold and mortality, Room 117, Floor 1, August 26, 2019, 1:30 PM - 3:00 PM Background–There is a gap of knowledge on the possible health impacts and vulnerabilities to climate change in the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula Region. In this hyper-arid part of the world, population health data is not abundantly available while temperatures soar to unprecedented record high levels. Our research group previously showed acute negative effects of temperature extremes on daily non-accidental mortality in Kuwait. However, little is known about the most vulnerable subpopulations. Objective–To assess the risks of mortality from extreme temperatures among different groups of the Kuwaiti population. Methods–From 2010 to 2016, mortality data were analyzed using a time-series design and a negative binomial distribution for the daily counts of deaths, stratified by cause of death, gender, age, and nationality. The temperature lag was modeled with distributed lag non-linear models (dlnm). The relationship was adjusted for PM10 and ozone daily levels. Results–In total, both heat and cold effects showed increased risks of mortality among most subpopulations. For the heat effect, comparing extreme temperature at the 99th percentile to the optimum temperature (OT), the relative risk (RR) of death among men and non-Kuwaitis were 2.08 (1.23-3.52) and 1.96 (1.10-3.52), respectively. Similarly, the RR of death from a cardiovascular cause during extremely hot days was 3.09 (1.72-5.55). Among the elderly population (>65 years), the RR of death from extreme hot and cold temperatures compared to OT were 1.86 (1.02-3.39) and 2.31 (1.13-4.73), respectively. Conclusions–Our findings suggest that men, the elderly, non-Kuwaitis, and people with cardiovascular diseases are most vulnerable to extreme hot temperatures. The evidence overwhelmingly prompts policy considerations and adaptation methods to temperature exposure. We now uncover vulnerabilities to temperature extremes from a region that is overshadowed by the question of human inhabitability by the end of the century due to increasing global temperatures.