Temperature variability since A.D. 1837 inferred from tree-ring maximum density of Abies fabri on Gongga Mountain, China

Abstract

Two tree-ring MXD (maximum latewood density) chronologies of Abies fabri were developed from the eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, and a regional chronology (RC) was established based on the two MXD chronologies. There were significant positive correlations between the three MXD chronologies and August–September temperature, and the RC had the highest correlation (r=0.733, n=48, P<0.001) with mean August-September temperature. Based on growth-climate analyses, we reconstructed mean August-September temperature during the past 171 years for the study area. The reconstruction explained 53.5% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1960–2007 (F=52.8, R2adj =52.4%). In the past 171 years, there were 22 very warm years and 23 very cold years, four cold periods (1837–1842, 1884–1891, 1899–1905 and 1984–1989) and three warm periods (1966–1973, 1916–1924 and 1876–1881). Our reconstruction was validated by other tree ring-based temperature reconstructions from the surrounding area and documented climate disaster events.