Abstract
Nzoia River Basin is one of the regions that is highly vulnerable to climate change in Kenya. Many attempts have been made to identify and quantify the impact of climate change on socio-economic sectors and ecosystems using global studies resulting into recommendations on policy changes aimed at generating sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies. This top-down approach by using global studies lacks the required local and regional climate change specificities to address the regional and local climate change challenges. Temperature is one of the most important components of the climatic parameters widely measured as a starting point towards the apprehension of climate change courses. This study aims at filling the top-down approach knowledge gaps in Nzoia River Basin by assessing temperature variability and trends at three stations for the period 1979 to 2014, using Linear regression analysis and Mann-Kendall statistical test. Monthly maximum and minimum temperature data for Kitale, Kakamega and Eldoret stations was obtained from Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya. The main findings reveal that Kakamega has highest temperatures, followed by Kitale and the lowest temperatures are found at Eldoret. This trend seems to go with altitude as the lowest temperatures are found at highest altitudes and highest temperatures at lowest altitudes. There are significant increases in annual temperatures for Kitale and Kakamega stations, with Kitale showing annual maximum temprature rising at 0.0006260 C/year; annual minimum temperature rising at 0.0011630 C/year and the annual mean temprature rising at 0.0008940 C/year. Kakamega shows annual maximum temperature rising at 0.0007710 C/year; annual minimum temperatures rising at 0.0004710 C/year and the annual mean temperatures rising at 0.0006230 C/year. Eldoret shows falling maximum temperature at - 0.002020 C/year; rising minimum temperature at 0.0008130 C/year and falling mean temperatures at - 0.001420 C/year. The results for Kitale and Eldoret stations show statistically significant trends whereas those for Kakamega station were statistically insignificant. Eldoret annual minimum temperatures are rising faster than the maximum whereas in Kakamega it’s the annual maximum temperatures that are rising faster than the minimum. Kitale and Kakamega show annual mean temperatures rising at about 0.10C per century which compares well with IPCC Third Assessment Report estimated global warming rate of 0.6 0C during the twentieth century and other studies from the African continent and East African region.
Highlights
Climate change has been a major concern for scientists all around the world since the inaugural World Climate Conference, held in Geneva from 12th to 23rd of February 1979 and sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization
The Earth's warming over the twentieth century resulted in a decrease in the region of the world impacted by extremely cold temperatures and, to a lesser extent, an increase in the area affected by extremely warm temperatures [2]
Beginning with January at 28.3 0 C, the maximum temperature rises to 28.6 0 C in February and falls gradually to 23.90C in July, followed by a gradual rise reaching 26.30C in December to repeat the annual cycle again
Summary
Climate change has been a major concern for scientists all around the world since the inaugural World Climate Conference, held in Geneva from 12th to 23rd of February 1979 and sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization. Because of its capacity to depict the energy exchange process over the earth's surface with fair accuracy, air temperature is widely regarded as a good predictor of the status of the climate globally [1]. As well as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concur that the Earth's surface has warmed significantly during the previous century. Some studies of extended temperature time series on a hemispheric and global scale have found a warming rate of 0.3-0.6°C since the midnineteenth century, attributed to either human or astronomic causes. Global temperatures rose to 0.6 ± 0.2°C on average over land and sea throughout the twentieth century, according to records. Climatological studies show a 0.3-0.6°C increase in surface air temperature since 1860, with 0.50.7°C for the Northern Hemisphere
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