Abstract
This paper presents an empirical analysis devised to understand the complex relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality in 16 Asian countries where more than 50% of the world's population resides. Using a country-year panel on mortality rates and various measures of high temperatures for 1960–2015, the analysis produces two primary findings. First, high temperatures significantly increase annual mortality rates in Asia. Second, this increase is larger in countries with cooler climates where high temperatures are infrequent. These empirical estimates can help inform climate change impact projections on human health for Asia, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change. The results indicate that unabated warming until the end of the century could increase annual mortality rates by more than 40%, highlighting the need for concrete and rapid actions to help individuals and communities adapt to climate change.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to negatively affect human health in most countries
The second subsection uses these estimated relationships to predict the impacts of climate change on annual mortality in the Southeast Asia (SESA) countries
Are studies based on historical variations in temperature and mortality, such as this one, externally valid to assess the impacts of climate change on mortality? A central issue is that empirical studies are necessarily identified by observed historical variation in weather rather than a permanent future shift in the climate
Summary
Climate change is expected to negatively affect human health in most countries. This ongoing threat is especially significant in South, East, and Southeast Asia (SESA), where more than 50% of the world’s population resides and where weather-dependent economic activities such as agriculture remain important contributors to gross domestic product (GDP). It is important to bear in mind that this paper relies on interannual variation in temperature, not on permanent changes in the temperature distributions This will likely produce an overestimate of the impacts of climate change, because individuals and communities can only engage in a limited set of adaptations in response to interannual variation. The preferred specification suggests that climate change would lead to a 45% increase in the annual mortality rate by the end of the century (i.e., 2080–2099) across the 16 countries in the sample.. As discussed above, the estimated climate change impacts likely overstate the mortality costs because the analysis relies on interannual variation in weather, not a permanent change in the distribution of weather. By focusing only on temperature change, the results reported in this paper could underestimate the overall health costs of climate change for the 16 SESA countries
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
