Temperature-suitability maps for schistosomiasis in South Africa.

Abstract

The results of parasitological surveys have shown that both urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis occur widely among the human residents of South Africa. The national data on both diseases have now been incorporated into a geographical information system, to develop new maps based on defined temperature constraints. The disease data, obtained from a 'hard-copy' atlas of schistosomiasis, were used as a template to select temperature regimes that were (1) suitable and (2) unsuitable for the transmission of schistosomes to humans in South Africa. The regimes were derived from the published results of investigations in which the biology of larval schistosomes (i.e. schistosome transmission) was related to temperature in South Africa. Those regimes that were based on the estimated temperature minima for transmission corresponded more closely to the disease-distribution data than those based on the corresponding maxima. An estimate of the number of children living in the climate-suitable areas was made but, within the context of the spatial methodology used and the limitations of the available disease data, it was not possible to predict the prevalences of schistosomiasis.