Temperature influence on peatland carbon accumulation over the last century in Northeast China

Abstract

Here we present results from a total of 10 peatland cores dated by 210Pb analysis in the Greater Khingan Range and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China to determine their carbon accumulation rates and evaluate possible climate connections during the last 100 years. The carbon accumulation rate and temperature in the Greater Khingan Range were lower than that in the Sanjiang Plain. Carbon accumulation rate in the last 100 years was higher than the long-term rate of carbon accumulation in the last two millennia mainly due to the addition of peat was more obvious than the decomposition on the background of warming. Regression relationships between temperature and Non-autogenic carbon accumulation rate were constructed by GAMs, GBMs, and RF models. We also predicted the trend of carbon accumulation rate in Northeast China over the next century based on these models. The future carbon accumulation rates in the Great Khingan Range under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 will increase until around 2100 CE in the face of warming. Future peatland carbon accumulation rate under a warmer climate show a decrease in the Sanjiang Plain under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5.