Abstract
Baris coerulescens Scopoli is a weevil attacking the tap root of winter oilseed rape. Experiments at 6 constant temperatures (10, 15, 21, 25, 30, 35°C) provided mean development rates for each temperature and larval stage as well as distributions of development times. We estimated the 4 parameters of the Sharpe and DeMichele model with high-temperature inhibition and the 3 parameters of a Weibull function describing variability of development times. To validate the model, field data were collected during a 4-yr study. Plants were dissected, and all the egg and 4 instars per plant were counted throughout the development period; these numbers were transformed to proportions for each date. The model was run using a combination of air and soil temperatures, and egg cohorts were defined according to a plant infestation model. Simulation results described field results well, with discrepancies of <15%. We discuss conditions necessary for early development of the pest and potential yield losses.
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