Temperature dependence of germination and growth in Anthurium (Araceae).

Abstract

By the year 2100, temperatures are predicted to increase by about 6°C at higher latitudes and about 3°C in the tropics. In spite of the smaller increase in the tropics, consequences may be more severe because the climatic niches of tropical species are generally assumed to be rather narrow due to a high degree of climate stability and higher niche specialisation. However, rigorous data to back up this notion are rare. We chose the megadiverse genus Anthurium (Araceae) for study. Considering that the regeneration niche of a species is crucial for overall niche breadth, we focused on the response of germination and early growth through a temperature range of 24°C of 15 Anthurium species, and compared the thermal niche breadth (TNB) with the temperature conditions in their current range, modelled from occurrence records. Surprisingly, an increase of 3°C would lead to a larger overlap of TNB of germination and modelled in situ temperature conditions, while the overlap of TNB of growth with in situ conditions under current and future conditions is statistically indistinguishable. We conclude that future temperatures tend to be closer to the thermal optima of most species. Whether this really leads to an increase in performance depends on other abiotic and biotic factors, most prominently potentially changing precipitation patterns.