Abstract
We analyze the impact of in utero temperature exposure on the birth weight and an indicator for low birth weight using administrative data on singleton live births conceived between 2000 and 2016 in Hungary. We find that exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy decreases birth weight, but its impact on the probability of low birth weight is weaker. Exposure to one additional hot day (mean temperature > 25 °C) during the gestation period reduces birth weight by 0.46 g, relative to a 15–20 °C day. The second and third trimesters appear to be slightly more sensitive to temperature exposure than the first trimester. We project that climate change will decrease birth weight and increase the prevalence of low birth weight by the mid-twenty-first century. The projected impacts are the strongest for newborns conceived during the winter and spring months.
Highlights
We find that temperature exposure during pregnancy has a significant influence on birth weight
We studied the effect of in utero temperature exposure on birth weight and the prevalence of low birth weight
We showed that exposure to one additional day with a mean temperature > 25 °C reduces birth weight by 0.46 g, whereas the impact of a 20–25 °C day is −0.36 g
Summary
Birth weight and other indicators of health at birth predict important outcomes in later life, including childhood, adolescent, and adult health, as well as educational attainment and labor market outcomes (Almond et al, 2018; Almond & Currie, 2011; Behrman & Rosenzweig, 2004; Bharadwaj et al, 2018; Black et al, 2007; Case et al, 2005; Currie, 2009, 2011; Figlio et al, 2014). As the Earth’s climate is projected to warm rapidly in the decades (IPCC 2014, 2018), a notable research line focuses on the impact of in utero temperature exposure on birth weight (Andalón et al, 2016; Chen et al, 2020; Davenport et al, 2020; Deschênes et al, 2009; Grace et al, 2015; Molina & Saldarriaga, 2017; Ngo & Horton, 2016; Sun et al, 2019). The results are mixed in terms of which trimester is the most sensitive to temperature exposure
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