Abstract
The tragedy of COVID in 2020 has highlighted ‘excess death rates’, but standard rates for different age groups must be understood before reliable excess rates can be calculated. This study analyses pre-COVID deaths in Ontario Canada and finds a clear association of death rate in elderly groups with weather as represented by downtown Toronto. Deaths in the younger groups are less dependent on weather.Colder temperatures coincide with higher deaths and the combination of cold temperatures plus low solar irradiance coincides with anomalously high winter deaths. Humidity and barometric pressure have minor associations.These relations provide a basic but useable means of forecasting elderly deaths throughout the year even with cause of death unknown. Deaths over a 2-week period can be predicted within reason based on the combination of diffuse irradiance of the past 4 weeks and temperature of the past 2 weeks. A standard weekly pre-COVID death rate can be determined with a correction made based on the weather of the immediate prior weeks.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
