Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator

Maria Lazarina,Stefanos P. Sgardelis,Danai-Eleni Michailidou

doi:10.3390/d13040169

Maria Lazarina, Stefanos P. Sgardelis + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/d13040169

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Journal: Diversity	Publication Date: Apr 15, 2021
Citations: 2	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Abstract

The ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional patterns. Here, we explored the effect of predator-prey interaction on the predator distribution, using as target species the widespread and generalist grass snake (Natrix natrix). We used ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to build a model only with abiotic variables (abiotic model) and a biotic one including prey species richness. Then we projected the future grass snake distribution using a modest emission scenario assuming an unhindered and no dispersal scenario. The two models performed equally well, with temperature and prey species richness emerging as the top drivers of species distribution in the abiotic and biotic models, respectively. In the future, a severe range contraction is anticipated in the case of no dispersal, a likely possibility as reptiles are poor dispersers. If the species can disperse freely, an improbable scenario due to habitat loss and fragmentation, it will lose part of its contemporary distribution, but it will expand northwards.

Highlights

Diversity 2021, 13, 169. https://Extended human-induced changes have given rise to a more “fragile” world which is getting hotter, with changing precipitation and more frequent extreme weather events [1], e.g., there was an increase of 0.7 ◦ C in average temperature in the last 100 years [2], and a further increase of at least 1.5 ◦ C is anticipated by 2052 [3]
Species distributions at broad scales are considered to be driven by abiotic factors, where bioticdistributions interactions,atthat manifest local scales and scales, add Species broad scalesatare considered to diminish be drivenatbybroad abiotic factors, only noise to a series of studies have demonstrated that biotic inwhere biotic interactions, that manifest at local scales and diminish at broad scales, add only teractions affect species distributions across spatial scales
We found a good performance of the biotic and the abiotic Species Distribution Model predicting the distribution of the generalist Natrix natrix

Summary

Introduction

Diversity 2021, 13, 169. https://Extended human-induced changes have given rise to a more “fragile” world which is getting hotter, with changing precipitation and more frequent extreme weather events [1], e.g., there was an increase of 0.7 ◦ C in average temperature in the last 100 years [2], and a further increase of at least 1.5 ◦ C is anticipated by 2052 [3]. The rate of biodiversity loss is alarming and species have or will be summoned to cope with new climatic conditions by formed new communities. In this context, species shift their behavior [9], phenology [10,11,12], or their range [13], and these changes might allow them to persist and evade extinction. As the biosphere changes rapidly and in various directions [20], ecologists and biogeographers strive to project the future of species and communities under climate change in order to ensure effective biodiversity conservation and human well-being [21]

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