Abstract
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected trend in temperature and precipitation over Jimma zone. The changes are computed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP6 and SSP5-8.5) from 1980-2020. This study was undertaken to analyze rainfall and Temperature trend in Jimma zone, ONRS of Ethiopia. The study employed Mann-Kendall’s test to detect change in rainfall trends. Results for rainfall trend analysis for Jimma zone indicated decreasing trends, Overall, the observed trends were not statistically significant at 1% and 5%. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increased. The mean temperature in the study area ranges from 20’C to 25 ‘C with annual average temperature of 22 ‘C. The rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.0181, 0.3536, 0.2041 and 0.026 ‘C per decade for mean, minimum and maximum respectively during the period of 1980–2020. The results of MK test for monthly precipitation data revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend (at 10% level of significance). attributed to an increase in the minimum temperature. It is, therefore, imperative to adjust the agriculture activity with the variability situation and design planned climate change adaptation strategies so as to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience of rainfed dependent smallholder farmers Keywords: Climate change, CMIP6, Temperature, Precipitation DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/79-02 Publication date: October 31 st 2021
Highlights
The impact of human activities started to extend to a global scale since the start of the industrial revolution (Birara & Mishra, 2020) Scientists have reached a consensus that the global annual average temperature is likely to be 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, and a 2 ◦C warmer world will experience more intense rainfall and more frequent and more intense droughts, floods, heat waves, and other extreme weather events (Feyissa et al, 2018)
The results are different from the findings where statistically non-significant increasing trend was recorded in all seasons (Girma et al, 2016) and Arragaw and Woldeamlak (2017) where statistically significant increasing trends in July and November in dega and woinadega agroecologies of central highlands of Ethiopia were reported
Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of disasters
Summary
Background Climate change is one of the greatest challenges faced by humankind as it poses an existential threat to many aspects of the current social–ecological landscape of natural and human systems (Almazroui et al, 2021). The climate system has been influenced by human-induced forces activities for centuries. The impact of human activities started to extend to a global scale since the start of the industrial revolution (Birara & Mishra, 2020) Scientists have reached a consensus that the global annual average temperature is likely to be 2 ◦C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, and a 2 ◦C warmer world will experience more intense rainfall and more frequent and more intense droughts, floods, heat waves, and other extreme weather events (Feyissa et al, 2018). The second most populous continent in the world, is one of the region’s most vulnerable to climate change due to its high exposure and low adaptive capacity (Almazroui et al, 2020a)
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