Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China

Abstract

BackgroundMany studies have explored the epidemiological characteristics of influenza. However, most previous studies were conducted in a specific region without a national picture which is important to develop targeted strategies and measures on influenza control and prevention. ObjectivesTo explore the association between ambient temperature and incidence of influenza, to estimate the attributable risk from temperature in 30 Chinese cities with different climatic characteristics for a national picture, and to identify the vulnerable populations for national preventative policy development. MethodsDaily meteorological and influenza incidence data from the 30 Chinese cities over the period 2016–19 were collected. We estimated the city-specific association between daily mean temperature and influenza incidence using a distributed lag non-linear model and evaluated the pooled effects using multivariate meta-analysis. The attributable fractions compared with reference temperature were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed by region, sex and age. ResultsOverall, an N-shape relationship between temperature and influenza incidence was found in China. The cumulative relative risk of the peak risk temperature (5.1 °C) was 2.13 (95%CI: 1.41, 3.22). And 60% (95%eCI: 54.3%, 64.3%) of influenza incidence was attributed to ambient temperature during the days with sensitive temperatures (1.6°C–14.4 °C). The ranges of sensitive temperatures and the attributable disease burden due to temperatures varied for different populations and regions. The residents in South China and the children aged ≤5 and 6–17 years had higher fractions attributable to sensitive temperatures. ConclusionsTailored preventions targeting on most vulnerable populations and regions should be developed to reduce influenza burden from sensitive temperatures.