Abstract
Background/AimPrevious studies have found increased fall incidence during winter months. However, most of the studies were conducted among the elderly only. Few studies have directly examined the impact of weather on the occurrence of falls. The findings of these studies are also not consistent. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the influences of temperatures on falls.MethodsBetween 1998 and 2011, daily falls-related hospital admission were obtained from Hong Kong Hospital Authority, which were compiled with daily meteorological and air pollutants data obtained from the Hong Kong Observatory and Environmental Protection Department, respectively. Generalized Additive Models were used to estimate the effects of daily mean temperature (°C) on daily falls-related hospital admissions while controlling for other meteorological factors, air pollutants, day of the week, seasonality and long-term trends. Lagged effects were also considered.ResultsA total of 400,737 fall-related hospital admissions were analyzed. The highest falls incidence rate was observed in January, while the lowest in May. A reverse J-shaped association was found. Below a threshold temperature of 28.5°C, daily mean temperature was significantly negatively associated with fall-related hospital admissions. A daily mean temperature of 19.5°C (25th percentile) and 14.5°C (5th percentile) over lags 0-7 were associated with a 11% higher [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.15] and 21% higher [95% CI: 1.15, 1.21] falls risks when compared to 28.5°C, respectively.ConclusionsA reverse J-shaped association was found between ambient temperature and falls in the general population in a subtropical Asian city. Since falls are predicted to become the 17th leading cause of death by 2030, it is important to better understand the impacts of the changing climate on falls. Preventive plans such as providing proper heating may help decrease the risk of falls associated with low temperatures.
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