Temperature and Air Pollution as Risk Factors for Heat Stroke in Tokyo, July and August 1980-1995

Abstract

Heat stroke is associated with prolonged exposures to high air temperatures that usually occur in the summer months of July and August in Tokyo, Japan. Also during July and August, residents of Tokyo are often exposed simultaneously to high concentrations of air pollutants. To assess the impacts of these combined exposures, daily numbers of heat stroke emergency transport cases/million residents for Tokyo were stratified by gender and three groups: 0-14, 15-64; and > 65 years of age, for the months of July and August in 1980-1995. A regression model was constructed using daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily average concentrations of NO2 and O3 as model covariates. Classification indices were added to make it possible to compare the expected number of heat stroke cases by age and gender. Lag times of 1-4 days in Tmax and air quality covariates and terms to account for interactions between pairs of model covariates were also included as additional risk factors. Generalized linear models (GLMs), assuming a Poisson error structure for heat stroke emergency transport cases, were used to determine which covariates were significant risk factors for heat stroke for the three age groups of males and females. Same-day Tmax and concentrations of NO2 were the most significant risk factors for heat stroke in all age groups of males and females. The number of heat stroke emergency transport cases/million residents was greater in males than in females in the same age groups. The smallest number of heat stroke emergency transport cases/million residents occurred for females 0-14 years of age and the greatest number of heat stroke emergency transport cases/million residents occurred for males > 65 years of age.