Abstract

An ongoing debate in demography has focused on whether the human lifespan has a maximal natural limit. Taking a mechanistic perspective, and knowing that short telomeres are associated with diminished longevity, we examined whether telomere length dynamics during adult life could set a maximal natural lifespan limit. We define leukocyte telomere length of 5 kb as the ‘telomeric brink’, which denotes a high risk of imminent death. We show that a subset of adults may reach the telomeric brink within the current life expectancy and more so for a 100-year life expectancy. Thus, secular trends in life expectancy should confront a biological limit due to crossing the telomeric brink.

Highlights

  • Cardiovascular disease (CVD), principally due to atherosclerosis, remains the largest cause of death and influences longevity in the US [1,2]

  • We examined the potential role of telomere length in human longevity in two settings: contemporary life expectancy, and life expectancy of 100 years (LE-100) i.e., assuming survival until the age of 100 years [17]

  • Our analysis suggests that the individual’s leukocyte telomere length (LTL), as reflected in his/her ranking, may be a major determinant of that individual’s natural lifespan limit from the standpoint of telomere biology

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Summary

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), principally due to atherosclerosis, remains the largest cause of death and influences longevity in the US [1,2]. Coupled with observations that LTL, which reflects telomere length in somatic tissues [13], is highly heritable [14,15] and is largely determined at birth [16], these findings suggest that telomere length might play an active role in CVD and longevity. Such a conclusion is relevant to the debate about the existence of a natural lifespan limit for humans [17,18,19,20,21]. We show that with predicted upward trajectories of life expectancy, the proportion of these individuals will only increase in the general population

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