Teleconnections between ENSO and rainfall and drought in Puerto Rico

Abstract

ABSTRACTAn analytical study was conducted to assess the long‐term influence, role, and impacts of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Puerto Rico's precipitation patterns and significant moisture deficits (droughts). Detection and attribution was addressed by evaluating local rainfall measures and ENSO‐related data to (1) detect ENSO signals and patterns, (2) quantify the magnitude of any impacts, and (3) determine if ENSO may be an important factor for local prediction of future droughts. Data were evaluated at different time periods and two spatial scales (island‐wide and internal climate regions of Puerto Rico). Although a signal was detected, it was weak, in both directions, varied regionally, and has inconsequential impacts. No evidence was found for a major control by ENSO over local monthly, seasonal, and yearly rainfall for any climate regions on the island. These results indicate that ENSO is not a main factor causing droughts in Puerto Rico for the study period and thus should not be a factor in predicting the potential for local dry periods or large precipitation deficits in the future. Any presumed teleconnections between Puerto Rico's dry periods and ENSO are not based on current climatological evidence. Thus, local drought prediction efforts should be focused on finding major causes of local rainfall variation other than ENSO.