Tele-connecting local consumption to cultivated land use and hidden drivers in China

Abstract

China faces significant pressure on cultivated land resources due to the accelerated pace of urbanization in recent years. The study of embodied cultivated land offers a new perspective on alleviating pressure on cultivated land between different regions. However, the temporal dynamics characteristic and the intersectoral linkages of embodied cultivated land have rarely been systematically described. Therefore, we applied an environmental extended multi-regional input-output approach to analyze the spatial patterns and flow relationships of virtual cultivated land (VCL) between regional, provincial and sectoral scale in China from 2007 to 2017, considering both temporal and spatial dimensions. Then, we explored the hidden drivers of VCL change using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Our results showed that trade embodied cultivated land increase by 8.5 % from 2007 to 2017. The flow trend is primarily flowed out from the less developed northwest China but with abundant cultivated land to the more developed regions of the southeast coast. Especially, in 2015, the net outflow of VCL from the northwest region reached 15.82 Mha, which was the maximum value during the study period. In addition, agricultural and construction sector were the major land consumption sector. VCL consumed by the agricultural sector declined 12.51 %, while the VCL consumed by construction sector had a significant growth in 2007–2017. Furthermore, the results of SDA revealed that cultivated land use intensity and per capita final demand were the main factors causing changes in embodied cultivated land. The results can help clarify the responsible parties for land consumption and provide a guarantee for alleviating the pressure on regional cultivated land resources.